The Aussie Pinball Arcade
Aussie Pinball Forums => General Discussion => General Pinball Discussion => Topic started by: Strangeways on March 17, 2017, 10:03:48 PM
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A very open ended question.
The demand for restored machines has NEVER been this strong. The niche "High End" market has become more popular with collectors. I'm sure there are a heap of obvious reasons such as the availability of reproduction parts combined with the High End Collector only wanting High End games.
Collectors once used to being able to buy titles such as Addams Family, in reasonable reconditioned or restored condition for $6500+ are now in a position where the game they may have flipped 5 years ago, is not as commonly sourced AND the price has doubled. But it is still an Addams Family.
The NIB market spiked, and Stern did well from AC/DC onwards. With recent issues and price increases, pinheads default back to reconditioned Addams etc - but they are THE SAME PRICE as NIB Stern Premiums and LEs.
Collectors that cannot source that elusive Addams for 2010 prices, now look at CFTBL or Shadow - but BOTH these titles are pushing what Addams Familys were in 2010 ! No one wanted Junkyards, Shadows, Judge Dredds etc etc..
The younger generation (younger than me by 20 years in some cases !^! ) have the $ to spend on NIB or High End restorations - but when I mention the 2010 prices, they don't believe me !
But these days, the Whirlwinds and Funhouses are not as sought after. There has been a drop in SS and EMs - which is a bit of a shame.
As a collector and hobbyist foremost, and having my foot well and truly in the industry, I'm almost asking myself where this is all heading almost every day. When will the bubble burst ? Will it be in 20 years when we are too old and Addams Family will be flooding the market for $2000 ? Will it be in 12 months time ?
But FOR NOW, with decent stock well and truly difficult to source for reasonable pricing (for resale), have we yet to see the prices peak and the home market explode ?
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No question pinball will be dead 20-30 yrs from now unless a new generation gets into it. And right now I don't see enough young ones getting into it. That could suddenly change if they decide pinball is cool. But how do they get exposed to it? There are not many machines on location, not like the old days, and for a beginner it is horrendously expensive to learn on modern machines. $2 gone in 2 mins.
However, for the next 5-10 yrs I think prices will hold or go higher, at worst drop to prices 12 months ago. Competitive pinball is introducing a lot of new people to collecting. They want to own a machine so they can practice, and we all know what happens once you get one machine in the door :)
I'm really looking forward to getting my hands on yr high end Viking resto for me, Nino. I love my SS!
Greg
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What is old becomes new and new becomes old. EVERYTHING goes full circle.
I can only predict good things ahead for home entertainment and this includes pinball and arcades for the next 2-3 years at least. Everyone loves a mechanical marvel. Even tech heads.
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Talking to another seller during the week,eemand is for DMDs era, no demand for anything earlier
Visited 5 collectors over the last 12 months;
Dan, no DMDs, seems to like everything but pinball
collector 1, mostly new sterns and high end BW, one sys11
collector 2, BW DMD and 2 sterns
collector 3, BW DMD pin2000, 1 stern and one Bally SS
collector 4, one DMD, early SS and EMs
Who knows what the furure holds
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Lol I still have a few Pete just prefer the exotic stuff no one has
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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This also raises the question of when to sell before the big price crash .
I am sad to hear that there is not much love for SS and EM anymore .
I have never been in this hobby to make a lot of $$ but equally don't want to be giving my machines away down the track either.
Still .. in the 12 ish years I have been in the hobby I have seen a few ups and downs with prices for EM/SS
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I'm 28 so probably fit into the younger age bracket of collectors. Most of the guys I hang out with when playing pinball are 40+. I just worry that in 20 years there won't be enough people playing anymore. Part will be harder to get, competitive pinball will die, and who knows what will happen to prices.
I also worry about lost expertise. I have learned to repair most issues on my own and hope to be repairing other peoples machines in the future. But the best techs in this game aren't getting younger and I don't see enough younger guys getting into that side of the hobby.
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Might end up fewer pins in collections that are more expensive (either collector quality or stern/jjp pricing). If so, then perhaps secondary market might stabilise with a few more sold to fund $15k new/cq pins :(
P.S. cheers Pete for the kind collection remark ;)
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Most existing pins are in private collections already. They tend to stay there for a while and so market traffic decreases.
pimp this.. pimp that.. add LED's and chuck an extra grand on the value.. its all bollox because eventually, good condition, original machines will be the ultimate prize because most home/ dealers restorations are not up to par. We already see super thick clear coat.. restorers signing playfields as if in years to come they will somehow be respected for ultimately ruining a game. What's one mans restoration is another's abomination and once they reach the age of being classed as antiques, its originality/ patina etc that counts.
EM pinball prices are down but were stupid some 5 years back. EM arcade is now stupid money, DMD's and SS forever increasing.
When I see a $3500 RECEL game I really know the world has lost the plot.
But it turns like the tide due to demand for a particular era and so the 12-13K KISS's are no more.. the $15K Whitewaters are.. well.. laughable... $3.5K Zaccaria's. Its all nonsense and once ignored, settles down again.
The home market will exist for many many years.. I have at least another 30 in me I hope and I have no doubt that my line up will forever change as it has done for the last 20 or so. But by then, Stern CPU's will be obsolete and the games themselves probably unplayable. EM's though by then will be over 100 years old and still going strong.. only the basket cases get restored, the rest with scuffs, high scores scratched in the cabinet with a date from 1969, bit of flipper drag etc.. all firmly locked into the premium unobtainium market.
Gav
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Talking to another seller during the week,eemand is for DMDs era, no demand for anything earlier
Visited 5 collectors over the last 12 months;
Dan, no DMDs, seems to like everything but pinball
collector 1, mostly new sterns and high end BW, one sys11
collector 2, BW DMD and 2 sterns
collector 3, BW DMD pin2000, 1 stern and one Bally SS
collector 4, one DMD, early SS and EMs
Who knows what the furure holds
add another stern to my collection Pete
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Talking to another seller during the week,eemand is for DMDs era, no demand for anything earlier
Visited 5 collectors over the last 12 months;
Dan, no DMDs, seems to like everything but pinball
collector 1, mostly new sterns and high end BW, one sys11
collector 2, BW DMD and 2 sterns
collector 3, BW DMD pin2000, 1 stern and one Bally SS
collector 4, one DMD, early SS and EMs
Who knows what the furure holds
And I think you forgot my pin2000...... %$%
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yeah yeah, my point is that few people want EMs, solid state or even Sys11's
the majority want DMD era machines
and unless there is ongoing support from Stern, and JJP with boards, the LCD games will not have the same longevity
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and a question for Nino;
these highend collectors that you supply, are they after that one perfect game , or do they have a room full (more than 5) games?
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and a question for Nino;
these highend collectors that you supply, are they after that one perfect game , or do they have a room full (more than 5) games?
Some collectors have a number of games but want one game - their Grail machine, done as a High End Restoration.
Some collectors buy dealer machines, find out that they are not up to standard, and then want them restored properly - as High end machines.
New collectors, especially younger guys, want an immediate click of the fingers High End machine to start off their collections.
Recently, there have been an increase in Ex Stern fanbois that would rather spend $13,000 on a robust, High End WPC era game (TAF, TZ, RFM..) than an incomplete and problematic NIB game.
In 2010, most of my customers wanted Fathom, Playboy, Genie, Pro football, KISS, Paragon.. Nowadays it is ST TNG, Shadow, CFTBL. Ironically, the late Greg Berry was the individual that pushed me to restore DMD era games alongside the EMs and SS that I loved doing. There has been a drop off in EMs. Most customers ask for Fireball, Captain Fantastic, Wizard, El Dorado - games that are hard to find and expensive.
Across the board, there is a bit of "buyer's panic" and they want the DMD machines like Addams Family as they know the prices are increasing to ridiculous prices and they WILL miss out if they wait too long. The SS and EMs are usually easier to find, and they are becoming cheaper to buy. If you are new to the hobby, and you love EMs - you would be arriving at the right time as your $ will buy you a good title.
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Across the board, there is a bit of "buyer's panic" and they want the ....
Feels an awful lot like today's housing market...let's hope neither end in bloodshed....
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Across the board, there is a bit of "buyer's panic" and they want the ....
Feels an awful lot like today's housing market...let's hope neither end in bloodshed....
Says he with a gangster avatar ;)
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The answer is the same for every form of collector's market:
The most valuable period is what crashed up 40-50 year old remember in their youth. That translates to anything that is 20-30 years old. So peak pinball prices are for machines that were operating say 20-30 years ago. Not surprisingly that is about the DMD era.
By that, 60's/70's EMs have passed their peak prices.
As for Wobdrails, they are beyond memory of anyone who has cash to spend on a toy. They are relegated to museum pieces now. Of interest to most collectors as a piece of history, but not many desire them for home.
So the future in pinball secondhand market is the NIB games now. Buy a 15 year old pin now, and profit after about 5 to 15 years after that.
...We have a problem now: Machines built 15 years ago are poor, and were not played by many. So those machines will likely never be worth much - just as 80s pins not lost between 70s EM and 90s DMD. It's the Ghostbusters and Trons of today that you need to wait for to be about 15 years old to get at a low price, just prior to their peak.
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With all the hype and new games with higher $$ being announced, I am starting to think that pinball is gonna shoot itself in the foot for the home market. I really love pinball, but it is turning into an exclusive rich boys club! I hate that.
Maybe I am just confused as I don't know which game to get this year by trading in some old models or maybe I just keep my boat anchors and enjoy playing them?
Arcades are really taking off I hear as this is the only way most normal people can afford to play them these days, therefore the home market should decline.
I for one will be happy with going out and dropping a few coins ( as long as they are looked after )
Vent over, carry on.
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I'd say the home market is seeing high prices due to the lack of supply of new built machines from about 2000 onwards. The more new machines grow on location now, the more supply there will be to the home market as used machines.
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No arcades in adelaide, and no increase in machines on location. Most location owners don't like the noise and they don't take as much money as they used to so pinnies on location are disappearing over here.
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No arcades in adelaide, and no increase in machines on location. Most location owners don't like the noise and they don't take as much money as they used to so pinnies on location are disappearing over here.
Similar for my small inland city...we only have one lone pinball (AC/DC Pro) in a pub. I tried to site mine in 2012, but no pub owner wanted a pinball. Same story for every location. "Takes up too much room". "Too noisy!" A few years later, a new operator started up and they had their main location at the newly built bowling alley and had Buck Hunter machines at various pubs. Spoke to one of the partners and she was keen for a pinball, but couldn't convince the other partners. They had no experience in fixing pinballs and were concerned about them breaking down. I put my hand up as possible pinball tech, but no luck.
Fast forward to now and we have a new dedicated arcade in the city (first time in 20 years?) and again, no pinball machines. I haven't been in there, but I don't think i'll waste my time asking if they'll be getting a pinball, as the answer is always the same.....and as for the lone sited AC/DC Pro, it's hardly ever powered on now.
I can see the reason why Stern are raising their prices, but wonder how many more machines could be out there if they stayed low?
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What is old becomes new and new becomes old. EVERYTHING goes full circle.
I can only predict good things ahead for home entertainment and this includes pinball and arcades for the next 2-3 years at least. Everyone loves a mechanical marvel. Even tech heads.
That's what I think too. Pinball machines are a staple of the home entertainment and games room.
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Having discussed this at length over the last few years with long term industry people that i know and respect.
The general consensus is that our economy will have to falter and falter hard. People will be genuinely hurting, then AND ONLY THEN the toys will have to go and IF this happens across the board like it did in the States with the GFC, the market will be flooded. No one else will have money to buy from the flood and prices WILL tumble.
I picked up a Treasurecove ToM during this tumultuous time in the US and even with shipping I was in front by $4-5000. The guy i bought it off lost the entire restoration costs and even some of the original donor machine costs. He was happy to see it go to a fellow pinhead. I phoned him a few times during the course of the sale. He couldn't get a bid at 5K on ebay for a machine which owed him in excess of 10K. No-one had money to buy from the FLOOD of machines as they were all in the same boat. Fast forward 3 years and everything gets back on track. Happy Days.
The way our borrowings have gone and the new younger ones in the market that don't remember interest rates of 17% (that's what my first home loan was signed at!!) Mortgage annalists say that most people are only 1-2 months away from defaulting their home loans should their income stream change or the jobs market collapse. Time will tell.....We all thought these prices are unsustainable and most of us are surprised the bubble hasn't burst before this. I guess the good times have been here for a while and we are still "the lucky country"....for now? So let's play pinball and enjoy it for what it is. A toy and lately a very expensive toy. Suuuuuppppeeeerrrrrr Jaaacccckkkkpppoootttt.
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Great write-up Scott :)
ToM bolted to the floor ;)
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The days of sited machines is virtually over. The chances of youngins getting the bug is fairly slim due to availabilty of play in the wild. In saying that my son (aged 25) who lives in the US had never played a pinball till recently. To watch him play his first game was funny. He would stand stiff then just push the flipper buttons. By game 20 the hips and pecs were thrusting combined with a lot of verbal outbursts. My dad is in his mid 70s and still plays daily.
Nobody seemed to mind when technology went from EM-SS-DMD. Im not so sure how virtual pinball will go in the future. But Pinball is here to stay. Maintaining machines or getting parts wont be a problem with technology and 3D printing.
One word comes to mind that was coined only a few years ago. MANCAVE!
Every mancave needs a pin!
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I think its deeper than that.. my daughter ( aged 6) downloads apps on my phone all the time and plays them till bored - enter another app etc. There is no analogue skill involved - its all digital " do this, then do that = reward". he only thing that really changes are the graphics, basic reward code remains the same.
Introduce a manual skill like pinball and the rewards are not so fast coming and so the attention level disappears. Go to school and rewards are given for even attending. Result is that you can win with minimal effort.
Now turn that around.. im a glassblower by trade. Did a 5 year apprenticeship that gave me the basics. then after 10 years I told myself I had it nailed. Has now been 30 years in the trade and I still strive to perfect my craft. I can make something that 20 years ago I would have said was spot on.. but I still only see the one or two defects of every piece, not the product itself.
I will never achieve what I want - I know that, but it doesn't stop me striving for it.
pinball is the same.. if I could nail it then I probably wouldn't play it... but.. in todays standards, if it doesn't happen.. why bother?
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My kids are into the apps and the phones, iPad, iPod and iBrow.. But they STILL love playing me on Paragon.
Kid's birthdays still involve playing pinball. Even the youngest generation marvel at the silverball. The attraction is to beat each other's scores. With all these apps and crap like that, the kids beat total strangers, but on a pinball, bragging rights are instantaneous. There's a lot more "reward" in winning game of pinball with your friends / relatives.