What's the future for the home market ?

[Pop Bumper Pete]

Across the board, there is a bit of "buyer's panic" and they want the ....

Feels an awful lot like today's housing market...let's hope neither end in bloodshed....

Says he with a gangster avatar ;)

[Brunswick Brawler]

The answer is the same for every form of collector's market:


The most valuable period is what crashed up 40-50 year old remember in their youth.  That translates to anything that is 20-30 years old.  So peak pinball prices are for machines that were operating say 20-30 years ago.  Not surprisingly that is about the DMD era.


By that, 60's/70's EMs have passed their peak prices.


As for Wobdrails, they are beyond memory of anyone who has cash to spend on a toy.  They are relegated to museum pieces now.  Of interest to most collectors as a piece of history, but not many desire them for home.




So the future in pinball secondhand market is the NIB games now.  Buy a 15 year old pin now, and profit after about 5 to 15 years after that.




...We have a problem now:  Machines built 15 years ago are poor, and were not played by many.  So those machines will likely never be worth much - just as 80s pins not lost between 70s EM and 90s DMD.  It's the Ghostbusters and Trons of today that you need to wait for to be about 15 years old to get at a low price, just prior to their peak.

[oldskool1969]

With all the hype and new games with higher $$ being announced, I am starting to think that pinball is gonna shoot itself in the foot for the home market. I really love pinball, but it is turning into an exclusive rich boys club! I hate that.
Maybe I am just confused as I don't know which game to get this year by trading in some old models or maybe I just keep my boat anchors and enjoy playing them?
Arcades are really taking off I hear as this is the only way most normal people can afford to play them these days, therefore the home market should decline.
I for one will be happy with going out and dropping a few coins ( as long as they are looked after )
Vent over, carry on.

[Brunswick Brawler]

I'd say the home market is seeing high prices due to the lack of supply of new built machines from about 2000 onwards.  The more new machines grow on location now, the more supply there will be to the home market as used machines.

[onetaste]

No arcades in adelaide, and no increase in machines on location. Most location owners don't like the noise and they don't take as much money as they used to so pinnies on location are disappearing over here.

[delarge]

No arcades in adelaide, and no increase in machines on location. Most location owners don't like the noise and they don't take as much money as they used to so pinnies on location are disappearing over here.

Similar for my small inland city...we only have one lone pinball (AC/DC Pro) in a pub. I tried to site mine in 2012, but no pub owner wanted a pinball. Same story for every location. "Takes up too much room". "Too noisy!" A few years later, a new operator started up and they had their main location at the newly built bowling alley and had Buck Hunter machines at various pubs. Spoke to one of the partners and she was keen for a pinball, but couldn't convince the other partners. They had no experience in fixing pinballs and were concerned about them breaking down. I put my hand up as possible pinball tech, but no luck.

Fast forward to now and we have a new dedicated arcade in the city (first time in 20 years?) and again, no pinball machines. I haven't been in there, but I don't think i'll waste my time asking if they'll be getting a pinball, as the answer is always the same.....and as for the lone sited AC/DC Pro, it's hardly ever powered on now.

I can see the reason why Stern are raising their prices, but wonder how many more machines could be out there if they stayed low?

[TerryBounce]

What is old becomes new and new becomes old. EVERYTHING goes full circle.
I can only predict good things ahead for home entertainment and this includes pinball and arcades for the next 2-3 years at least. Everyone loves a mechanical marvel. Even tech heads.

That's what I think too. Pinball machines are a staple of the home entertainment and games room.

[JOKERPOKER]

Having discussed this at length over the last few years with long term industry people that i know and respect.
The general consensus is that our economy will have to falter and falter hard. People will be genuinely hurting, then AND ONLY THEN the toys will have to go and IF this happens across the board like it did in the States with the GFC, the market will be flooded. No one else will have money to buy from the flood and prices WILL tumble.

I picked up a Treasurecove ToM during this tumultuous time in the US and even with shipping I was in front by $4-5000. The guy i bought it off lost the entire restoration costs and even some of the original donor machine costs. He was happy to see it go to a fellow pinhead. I phoned him a few times during the course of the sale. He couldn't get a bid at 5K on ebay for a machine which owed him in excess of 10K. No-one had money to buy from the FLOOD of machines as they were all in the same boat. Fast forward 3 years and everything gets back on track. Happy Days.

The way our borrowings have gone and the new younger ones in the market that don't remember interest rates of 17% (that's what my first home loan was signed at!!) Mortgage annalists say that most people are only 1-2  months away from defaulting their home loans should their income stream change or the jobs market collapse. Time will tell.....We all thought these prices are unsustainable and most of us are surprised the bubble hasn't burst before this. I guess the good times have been here for a while and we are still "the lucky country"....for now? So let's play pinball and enjoy it for what it is. A toy and lately a very expensive toy. Suuuuuppppeeeerrrrrr Jaaacccckkkkpppoootttt.

[McKie1]

Great write-up Scott :)

ToM bolted to the floor ;)

[OziMoose]

The days of sited machines is virtually over. The chances of youngins getting the bug is fairly slim due to availabilty of play in the wild. In saying that my son (aged 25) who lives in the US had never played a pinball till recently. To watch him play his first game was funny. He would stand stiff then just push the flipper buttons. By game 20 the hips and pecs were thrusting combined with a lot of verbal outbursts. My dad is in his mid 70s and still plays daily.
Nobody seemed to mind when technology went from EM-SS-DMD. Im not so sure how virtual pinball will go in the future. But Pinball is here to stay. Maintaining machines or getting parts wont be a problem with technology and 3D printing.
One word comes to mind that was coined only a few years ago. MANCAVE!
Every mancave needs a pin!   

[Retropin]

I think its deeper than that.. my daughter ( aged 6) downloads apps on my phone all the time and plays them till bored - enter another app etc. There is no analogue skill involved - its all digital " do this, then do that = reward". he only thing that really changes are the graphics, basic reward code remains the same.
Introduce a manual skill like pinball and the rewards are not so fast coming and so the attention level disappears. Go to school and rewards are given for even attending. Result is that you can win with minimal effort.
Now turn that around.. im a glassblower by trade. Did a 5 year apprenticeship that gave me the basics. then after 10 years I told myself I had it nailed. Has now been 30 years in the trade and I still strive to perfect my craft. I can make something that 20 years ago I would have said was spot on.. but I still only see the one or two defects of every piece, not the product itself.
I will never achieve what I want - I know that, but it doesn't stop me striving for it.
pinball is the same.. if I could nail it then I probably wouldn't play it... but.. in todays standards, if it doesn't happen.. why bother?

[Strangeways]

My kids are into the apps and the phones, iPad, iPod and iBrow.. But they STILL love playing me on Paragon.

Kid's birthdays still involve playing pinball. Even the youngest generation marvel at the silverball. The attraction is to beat each other's scores. With all these apps and crap like that, the kids beat total strangers, but on a pinball, bragging rights are instantaneous. There's a lot more "reward" in winning game of pinball with your friends / relatives.